Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 373 game sample- PTS
- 20.9
- SOG
- 94.2
- G
- 5.9
- A
- 15.1
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 142.9
- BLK
- 153.8
- PIM
- 39.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 373 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 373 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 373 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.25
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.15
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.75
- BLK
- 1.88
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 0.28 | 94 | 21:02 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.22 | 79 | 21:24 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 0.27 | 124 | 22:52 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.15 | 66 | 21:36 |
| 2021-22 | 63 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 0.22 | 49 | 23:00 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21:23 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22:42 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24:27 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:33 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:41 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21:51 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16:34 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:44 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.3 | 7 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 67 | 136 |
| 2024-25 | 3.9 | 5 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 57 | 128 |
| 2023-24 | 5.0 | 3 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 66 | 169 |
| 2022-23 | 5.0 | 4 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 51 | 95 |
| 2021-22 | 2.5 | 2 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 49 | 77 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 18 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
136 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.