Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 64.5
- SOG
- 162.8
- G
- 21.5
- A
- 43.0
- PPP
- 24.3
- HIT
- 87.7
- BLK
- 101.8
- PIM
- 18.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.79
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.53
- SOG
- 1.99
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 1.07
- BLK
- 1.24
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 15 | 36 | 51 | 0.69 | 132 | 18:58 |
| 2024-25 | 64 | 15 | 30 | 45 | 0.70 | 109 | 18:40 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 34 | 55 | 89 | 1.09 | 207 | 19:39 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 39 | 63 | 102 | 1.28 | 257 | 20:33 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 32 | 36 | 68 | 0.85 | 192 | 18:36 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.46 | 22 | 19:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:02 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:07 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:31 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:07 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.3 | 15 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 68 | 221 |
| 2024-25 | 14.5 | 15 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 59 | 187 |
| 2023-24 | 28.8 | 34 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 78 | 301 |
| 2022-23 | 32.4 | 39 | plus 6.6 goals above expected | 79 | 373 |
| 2021-22 | 24.3 | 32 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 79 | 289 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 21 assists, 29 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 35 assists, 56 points | 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 28 goals, 41 assists, 69 points | 6 goals, 18 assists, 24 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 18 assists, 39 points | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
221 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.