Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 309 game sample- PTS
- 66.2
- SOG
- 155.8
- G
- 29.8
- A
- 36.4
- PPP
- 23.7
- HIT
- 27.1
- BLK
- 43.1
- PIM
- 23.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 309 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 309 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 309 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.81
- G
- 0.36
- A
- 0.45
- SOG
- 1.90
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.32
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 30 | 39 | 69 | 0.84 | 150 | 18:44 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 27 | 34 | 61 | 0.86 | 130 | 18:08 |
| 2023-24 | 47 | 22 | 14 | 36 | 0.77 | 117 | 17:01 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 23 | 18 | 41 | 0.65 | 122 | 15:36 |
| 2021-22 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.28 | 41 | 13:31 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.44 | 21 | 19:43 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.80 | 9 | 17:04 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.80 | 10 | 16:02 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 9:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:52 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:27 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.9 | 30 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 76 | 239 |
| 2024-25 | 19.4 | 27 | plus 7.6 goals above expected | 64 | 187 |
| 2023-24 | 16.6 | 22 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 43 | 157 |
| 2022-23 | 16.1 | 23 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 56 | 161 |
| 2021-22 | 4.1 | 5 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 20 | 52 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points | 13 goals, 11 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 9 assists, 22 points | 9 goals, 5 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 14 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
239 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.