Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 434 game sample- PTS
- 87.8
- SOG
- 178.9
- G
- 28.0
- A
- 59.8
- PPP
- 34.5
- HIT
- 74.3
- BLK
- 64.3
- PIM
- 24.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 434 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 434 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 434 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.07
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.73
- SOG
- 2.19
- PPP
- 0.42
- HIT
- 0.90
- BLK
- 0.78
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 29 | 72 | 101 | 1.23 | 183 | 20:49 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 30 | 59 | 89 | 1.09 | 172 | 20:04 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 33 | 44 | 77 | 0.94 | 185 | 21:16 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 26 | 40 | 66 | 0.80 | 162 | 21:06 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 21 | 40 | 61 | 0.74 | 186 | 20:31 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 0.84 | 40 | 22:16 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 14 | 22:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:04 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25:37 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:30 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 29:30 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:45 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:34 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:44 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.2 | 29 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 81 | 308 |
| 2024-25 | 23.2 | 30 | plus 6.8 goals above expected | 82 | 256 |
| 2023-24 | 22.6 | 33 | plus 10.4 goals above expected | 79 | 266 |
| 2022-23 | 18.0 | 25 | plus 7.0 goals above expected | 71 | 216 |
| 2021-22 | 17.7 | 20 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 71 | 237 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 40 assists, 57 points | 11 goals, 32 assists, 43 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 24 goals, 36 assists, 60 points | 4 goals, 23 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 30 assists, 46 points | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 26 assists, 37 points | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
308 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.