Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 380 game sample- PTS
- 85.2
- SOG
- 144.8
- G
- 27.7
- A
- 57.5
- PPP
- 21.1
- HIT
- 18.3
- BLK
- 49.4
- PIM
- 31.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 380 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 380 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 380 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.04
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.70
- SOG
- 1.77
- PPP
- 0.26
- HIT
- 0.22
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 25 | 39 | 64 | 1.00 | 102 | 19:01 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 21 | 60 | 81 | 1.16 | 145 | 19:58 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 26 | 60 | 86 | 1.05 | 170 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 18 | 47 | 65 | 0.89 | 106 | 19:20 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 20 | 57 | 77 | 1.07 | 115 | 18:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.14 | 8 | 20:59 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.50 | 20 | 18:45 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:54 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:29 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.3 | 25 | plus 8.7 goals above expected | 58 | 142 |
| 2024-25 | 18.9 | 21 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 69 | 222 |
| 2023-24 | 22.2 | 26 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 78 | 243 |
| 2022-23 | 15.7 | 18 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 63 | 144 |
| 2021-22 | 19.9 | 20 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 67 | 166 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 27 assists, 47 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 44 assists, 61 points | 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 38 assists, 55 points | 8 goals, 19 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 30 assists, 42 points | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 45 assists, 60 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
142 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.