Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 305 game sample- PTS
- 19.5
- SOG
- 105.0
- G
- 2.9
- A
- 16.6
- PPP
- 0.5
- HIT
- 73.8
- BLK
- 140.1
- PIM
- 26.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 305 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 305 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 305 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.03
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 1.28
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.90
- BLK
- 1.72
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 0.21 | 87 | 21:49 |
| 2024-25 | 60 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.33 | 95 | 21:08 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 0.23 | 77 | 15:38 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.13 | 49 | 14:56 |
| 2021-22 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.33 | 14 | 14:51 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 15 | 24:04 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 15:44 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 15:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:17 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:47 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:22 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26:52 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25:08 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:06 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 24:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.3 | 1 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 56 | 134 |
| 2024-25 | 3.3 | 6 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 53 | 138 |
| 2023-24 | 2.5 | 1 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 60 | 110 |
| 2022-23 | 1.4 | 2 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 46 | 68 |
| 2021-22 | 0.6 | 0 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 10 | 23 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 15 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
134 attempts · 1 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.