Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 218 game sample- PTS
- 33.0
- SOG
- 113.2
- G
- 14.1
- A
- 18.9
- PPP
- 1.9
- HIT
- 88.4
- BLK
- 26.2
- PIM
- 34.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 218 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 218 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 218 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.40
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.38
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.08
- BLK
- 0.31
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 51 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 0.41 | 74 | 13:39 |
| 2024-25 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.35 | 50 | 12:29 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 0.38 | 109 | 15:11 |
| 2021-22 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 0.56 | 59 | 14:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.42 | 19 | 12:52 |
| 2024-25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 12:03 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:01 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:01 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.8 | 8 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 45 | 110 |
| 2024-25 | 4.8 | 6 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 27 | 71 |
| 2023-24 | 12.2 | 12 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 72 | 157 |
| 2021-22 | 8.5 | 11 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 31 | 82 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
110 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.