Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 32.1
- SOG
- 149.0
- G
- 7.1
- A
- 25.0
- PPP
- 8.3
- HIT
- 180.7
- BLK
- 119.7
- PIM
- 57.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 1.82
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 2.21
- BLK
- 1.46
- PIM
- 0.70
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 51 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0.24 | 97 | 22:43 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.57 | 123 | 22:04 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0.40 | 146 | 20:50 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 0.40 | 142 | 21:56 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 3 | 31 | 34 | 0.44 | 140 | 21:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.54 | 23 | 24:25 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 5 | 21:58 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1.40 | 9 | 27:18 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:00 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24:04 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:56 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 18:50 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22:55 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25:04 |
| Mar 26 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20:38 |
| Mar 24 | vs VGK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20:57 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.5 | 3 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 44 | 144 |
| 2024-25 | 4.7 | 10 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 63 | 210 |
| 2023-24 | 6.2 | 5 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 78 | 212 |
| 2022-23 | 7.2 | 10 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 76 | 215 |
| 2021-22 | 7.3 | 3 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 71 | 203 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 21 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 20 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
144 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.