Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 468 game sample- PTS
- 34.5
- SOG
- 110.9
- G
- 11.9
- A
- 22.6
- PPP
- 1.5
- HIT
- 157.3
- BLK
- 63.1
- PIM
- 36.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 468 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 468 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 468 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.35
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.92
- BLK
- 0.77
- PIM
- 0.45
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 73 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.45 | 107 | 16:34 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 0.30 | 87 | 15:17 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0.33 | 119 | 15:56 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.52 | 132 | 15:59 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0.33 | 84 | 13:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 0.83 | 34 | 15:23 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.33 | 27 | 15:19 |
| 2022-23 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.31 | 14 | 16:41 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 9 | 13:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 |
| Apr 13 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Apr 11 | @ TOR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:23 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16:59 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16:21 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.9 | 11 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 66 | 159 |
| 2024-25 | 12.9 | 9 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 69 | 141 |
| 2023-24 | 15.8 | 12 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 73 | 184 |
| 2022-23 | 18.6 | 17 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 75 | 188 |
| 2021-22 | 10.7 | 9 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 59 | 110 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
159 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.