Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 334 game sample- PTS
- 23.0
- SOG
- 109.8
- G
- 11.1
- A
- 11.9
- PPP
- 0.2
- HIT
- 153.7
- BLK
- 45.5
- PIM
- 29.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 334 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 334 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 334 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.28
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 1.34
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.88
- BLK
- 0.55
- PIM
- 0.36
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 0.35 | 93 | 12:48 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 0.20 | 92 | 10:23 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 0.23 | 94 | 10:30 |
| 2022-23 | 70 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 0.30 | 112 | 13:16 |
| 2021-22 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.19 | 33 | 9:48 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 13 | 12:02 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 13 | 12:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Mar 26 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11:27 |
| Mar 24 | vs VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Mar 21 | @ PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
| Mar 19 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:30 |
| Mar 17 | vs NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 |
| Mar 15 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Mar 14 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.4 | 11 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 59 | 141 |
| 2024-25 | 11.7 | 8 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 61 | 144 |
| 2023-24 | 8.9 | 11 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 66 | 121 |
| 2022-23 | 13.7 | 7 | minus 6.7 goals above expected | 64 | 149 |
| 2021-22 | 2.7 | 2 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 18 | 39 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
141 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.