Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 358 game sample- PTS
- 26.8
- SOG
- 100.9
- G
- 14.4
- A
- 12.4
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 187.9
- BLK
- 61.2
- PIM
- 37.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 358 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 358 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 358 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.15
- SOG
- 1.23
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 2.30
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 0.43 | 104 | 12:42 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.24 | 99 | 12:44 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 0.23 | 86 | 11:43 |
| 2022-23 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.07 | 59 | 10:31 |
| 2021-22 | 41 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 0.29 | 48 | 10:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 18 | 11:12 |
| 2024-25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 6 | 12:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| May 24 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 |
| May 22 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 |
| May 20 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 |
| May 13 | vs MINPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11:09 |
| May 11 | @ MINPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:13 |
| May 9 | @ MINPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8:54 |
| May 5 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 |
| May 3 | vs MINPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 |
| Apr 26 | @ LAKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.4 | 21 | plus 7.6 goals above expected | 62 | 153 |
| 2024-25 | 11.0 | 8 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 68 | 159 |
| 2023-24 | 10.4 | 8 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 61 | 126 |
| 2022-23 | 5.6 | 1 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 42 | 79 |
| 2021-22 | 5.6 | 7 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 30 | 64 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 14 assists, 34 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
153 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.