Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 386 game sample- PTS
- 38.4
- SOG
- 129.1
- G
- 18.9
- A
- 19.5
- PPP
- 4.4
- HIT
- 55.4
- BLK
- 35.2
- PIM
- 21.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 386 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 386 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 386 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 1.57
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.67
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0.45 | 95 | 15:53 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 25 | 21 | 46 | 0.57 | 138 | 17:20 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 0.43 | 105 | 15:29 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 0.30 | 106 | 14:04 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 0.44 | 166 | 16:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 23 | 14:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:49 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:40 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12:44 |
| Mar 28 | vs TOR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.9 | 13 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 57 | 143 |
| 2024-25 | 19.5 | 25 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 74 | 195 |
| 2023-24 | 14.0 | 14 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 55 | 146 |
| 2022-23 | 12.0 | 14 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 68 | 145 |
| 2021-22 | 20.9 | 15 | minus 5.9 goals above expected | 77 | 216 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 23 goals, 17 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 18 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
143 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.