Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 369 game sample- PTS
- 26.1
- SOG
- 108.4
- G
- 13.1
- A
- 13.1
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 138.3
- BLK
- 18.3
- PIM
- 19.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 369 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 369 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 369 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.32
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.32
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.69
- BLK
- 0.22
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 0.27 | 84 | 11:26 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 0.39 | 110 | 12:16 |
| 2023-24 | 47 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.21 | 61 | 11:20 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0.33 | 98 | 13:57 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 0.40 | 104 | 13:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.42 | 26 | 10:47 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 23 | 11:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:53 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 10:43 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.7 | 11 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 53 | 139 |
| 2024-25 | 16.0 | 14 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 70 | 168 |
| 2023-24 | 7.1 | 3 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 38 | 92 |
| 2022-23 | 14.0 | 12 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 56 | 134 |
| 2021-22 | 11.2 | 10 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 57 | 136 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 5 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 18 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
139 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.