Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 434 game sample- PTS
- 46.7
- SOG
- 97.5
- G
- 14.7
- A
- 32.0
- PPP
- 5.5
- HIT
- 28.8
- BLK
- 34.2
- PIM
- 17.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 434 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 434 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 434 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 1.19
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.35
- BLK
- 0.41
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 14 | 40 | 54 | 0.67 | 90 | 17:37 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 20 | 33 | 53 | 0.67 | 97 | 16:50 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 0.37 | 106 | 14:14 |
| 2022-23 | 57 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 0.40 | 78 | 14:11 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 0.30 | 82 | 12:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.38 | 17 | 17:00 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 26 | 13:12 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.42 | 9 | 14:36 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 30 | 14:33 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:56 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9:35 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:51 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:18 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.3 | 14 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 60 | 139 |
| 2024-25 | 15.4 | 20 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 66 | 152 |
| 2023-24 | 13.1 | 12 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 71 | 160 |
| 2022-23 | 9.7 | 11 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 48 | 109 |
| 2021-22 | 9.8 | 9 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 57 | 111 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 32 assists, 41 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
139 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.