Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 449 game sample- PTS
- 36.5
- SOG
- 119.6
- G
- 7.5
- A
- 28.9
- PPP
- 3.1
- HIT
- 129.4
- BLK
- 106.6
- PIM
- 48.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 449 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 449 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 449 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.46
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.58
- BLK
- 1.30
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 8 | 29 | 37 | 0.51 | 123 | 22:23 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 0.36 | 110 | 21:57 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0.38 | 96 | 21:34 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 9 | 34 | 43 | 0.54 | 113 | 21:57 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 0.24 | 102 | 20:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0.47 | 19 | 24:02 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.25 | 13 | 21:05 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 4 | 22:25 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.35 | 20 | 24:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:59 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 21:00 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 22:45 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 33:25 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:51 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:51 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:55 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24:41 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 30:07 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.1 | 8 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 68 | 196 |
| 2024-25 | 5.6 | 7 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 62 | 167 |
| 2023-24 | 7.2 | 8 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 65 | 152 |
| 2022-23 | 6.8 | 9 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 68 | 164 |
| 2021-22 | 5.7 | 7 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 66 | 140 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 25 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 31 assists, 40 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
196 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.