Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 402 game sample- PTS
- 75.5
- SOG
- 220.2
- G
- 19.9
- A
- 55.6
- PPP
- 24.7
- HIT
- 102.5
- BLK
- 102.7
- PIM
- 78.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 402 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 402 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 402 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.92
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.68
- SOG
- 2.69
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 1.25
- BLK
- 1.25
- PIM
- 0.96
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 19 | 55 | 74 | 0.96 | 194 | 24:11 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 17 | 51 | 68 | 0.93 | 200 | 24:14 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 20 | 39 | 59 | 0.73 | 235 | 25:25 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 15 | 58 | 73 | 0.94 | 204 | 25:48 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 13 | 40 | 53 | 0.66 | 170 | 24:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1.08 | 46 | 23:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33:11 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:56 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27:28 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 19:29 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:04 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:17 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 21:04 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:48 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 29:01 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.7 | 19 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 76 | 284 |
| 2024-25 | 10.7 | 17 | plus 6.3 goals above expected | 72 | 277 |
| 2023-24 | 14.6 | 20 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 80 | 326 |
| 2022-23 | 16.5 | 15 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 72 | 267 |
| 2021-22 | 8.4 | 13 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 76 | 223 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points | 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 34 assists, 46 points | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 32 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 26 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 3 goals, 18 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
284 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.