Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 325 game sample- PTS
- 35.9
- SOG
- 151.3
- G
- 14.8
- A
- 21.0
- PPP
- 9.7
- HIT
- 43.8
- BLK
- 38.9
- PIM
- 55.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 325 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 325 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 325 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.85
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.53
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.68
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 0.37 | 119 | 15:07 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 26 | 46 | 0.56 | 155 | 16:06 |
| 2023-24 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.30 | 66 | 17:01 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 0.52 | 178 | 17:30 |
| 2021-22 | 60 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 0.40 | 82 | 16:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 12:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:49 |
| Mar 24 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Mar 22 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 |
| Mar 20 | vs ANA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:44 |
| Mar 19 | @ VGK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:01 |
| Mar 16 | @ DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:57 |
| Mar 14 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:09 |
| Mar 12 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 |
| Mar 10 | @ MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 |
| Mar 9 | @ CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.2 | 10 | minus 8.2 goals above expected | 59 | 171 |
| 2024-25 | 26.6 | 20 | minus 6.6 goals above expected | 74 | 246 |
| 2023-24 | 9.0 | 3 | minus 6.0 goals above expected | 31 | 93 |
| 2022-23 | 23.0 | 19 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 74 | 235 |
| 2021-22 | 10.9 | 10 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 49 | 116 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
171 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.