Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 412 game sample- PTS
- 47.1
- SOG
- 179.2
- G
- 10.9
- A
- 36.1
- PPP
- 11.4
- HIT
- 70.5
- BLK
- 172.4
- PIM
- 32.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 412 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 412 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 412 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 2.19
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.86
- BLK
- 2.11
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 12 | 35 | 47 | 0.59 | 158 | 22:29 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.55 | 196 | 23:16 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 10 | 60 | 70 | 0.89 | 174 | 24:31 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 13 | 36 | 49 | 0.63 | 206 | 20:23 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 13 | 38 | 51 | 0.64 | 190 | 21:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 21 | 22:03 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 6 | 24:06 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 12 | 20:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:37 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20:05 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 25:34 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:34 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:35 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:30 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25:22 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20:20 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:09 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.0 | 12 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 74 | 249 |
| 2024-25 | 10.3 | 10 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 69 | 295 |
| 2023-24 | 6.7 | 10 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 74 | 253 |
| 2022-23 | 11.0 | 13 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 77 | 309 |
| 2021-22 | 9.7 | 13 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 74 | 269 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 29 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 36 assists, 45 points | 1 goal, 23 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 19 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 19 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
249 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.