Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 248 game sample- PTS
- 24.0
- SOG
- 93.6
- G
- 10.7
- A
- 13.3
- PPP
- 0.5
- HIT
- 73.1
- BLK
- 47.2
- PIM
- 34.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 248 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 248 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 248 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.29
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.14
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 0.89
- BLK
- 0.57
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 0.31 | 90 | 13:21 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0.28 | 68 | 12:40 |
| 2023-24 | 54 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 0.31 | 54 | 11:34 |
| 2022-23 | 37 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0.35 | 27 | 10:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 11 | 12:43 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 11:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8:21 |
| Apr 4 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 |
| Apr 2 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 |
| Mar 31 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 |
| Mar 29 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 |
| Mar 28 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 |
| Mar 26 | vs SEA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:49 |
| Mar 24 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:57 |
| Mar 22 | @ CGY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 |
| Mar 21 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.3 | 11 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 65 | 151 |
| 2024-25 | 10.9 | 7 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 54 | 108 |
| 2023-24 | 6.3 | 7 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 37 | 79 |
| 2022-23 | 3.4 | 5 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 25 | 41 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
151 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.