Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 387 game sample- PTS
- 33.1
- SOG
- 85.4
- G
- 10.5
- A
- 22.6
- PPP
- 1.3
- HIT
- 163.4
- BLK
- 36.1
- PIM
- 75.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 387 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 387 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 387 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.40
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.04
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.00
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.92
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 0.48 | 93 | 13:46 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 0.35 | 80 | 13:56 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 0.21 | 74 | 12:31 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0.35 | 78 | 13:50 |
| 2021-22 | 57 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 0.39 | 56 | 14:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.46 | 10 | 14:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:13 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6:25 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:47 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:25 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:58 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.1 | 12 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 71 | 145 |
| 2024-25 | 10.1 | 10 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 62 | 139 |
| 2023-24 | 6.8 | 4 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 58 | 111 |
| 2022-23 | 8.9 | 9 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 55 | 109 |
| 2021-22 | 6.4 | 7 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 45 | 79 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 26 assists, 38 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 10 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
145 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.