Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 349 game sample- PTS
- 40.2
- SOG
- 111.8
- G
- 11.5
- A
- 28.8
- PPP
- 5.1
- HIT
- 70.5
- BLK
- 99.9
- PIM
- 51.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 349 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 349 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 349 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.36
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.86
- BLK
- 1.22
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 11 | 31 | 42 | 0.51 | 109 | 22:20 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 0.46 | 94 | 22:42 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 0.40 | 84 | 20:20 |
| 2022-23 | 42 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 0.57 | 65 | 21:53 |
| 2021-22 | 30 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.57 | 49 | 18:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.54 | 29 | 22:23 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.43 | 22 | 21:55 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0.45 | 44 | 19:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28:18 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:53 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21:47 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20:42 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:32 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:27 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:05 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.0 | 11 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 75 | 195 |
| 2024-25 | 7.4 | 7 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 72 | 144 |
| 2023-24 | 6.3 | 11 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 58 | 124 |
| 2022-23 | 6.7 | 10 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 37 | 95 |
| 2021-22 | 3.1 | 5 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 27 | 72 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 24 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 28 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
195 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.