Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 413 game sample- PTS
- 53.7
- SOG
- 200.0
- G
- 23.7
- A
- 30.0
- PPP
- 20.0
- HIT
- 192.9
- BLK
- 30.5
- PIM
- 58.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 413 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 413 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 413 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 2.44
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 2.36
- BLK
- 0.37
- PIM
- 0.72
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 28 | 31 | 59 | 0.72 | 205 | 17:02 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 0.57 | 188 | 17:04 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 0.59 | 200 | 17:14 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 31 | 37 | 68 | 0.84 | 211 | 16:30 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 0.48 | 160 | 15:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 11 | 20:01 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 13 | 16:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16:16 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:25 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:23 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28.9 | 28 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 79 | 294 |
| 2024-25 | 22.2 | 16 | minus 6.2 goals above expected | 78 | 253 |
| 2023-24 | 23.5 | 18 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 73 | 262 |
| 2022-23 | 27.5 | 31 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 78 | 274 |
| 2021-22 | 17.9 | 13 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 73 | 210 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 24 assists, 35 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 23 assists, 47 points | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
294 attempts · 28 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.