Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 166 game sample- PTS
- 21.7
- SOG
- 87.6
- G
- 6.2
- A
- 15.6
- PPP
- 0.5
- HIT
- 66.2
- BLK
- 43.1
- PIM
- 26.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 166 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 166 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 166 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.26
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.19
- SOG
- 1.06
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 0.80
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.32
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 0.23 | 67 | 10:50 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 0.37 | 79 | 11:44 |
| 2023-24 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | 14 | 9:17 |
| 2022-23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 6:59 |
| 2021-22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 13 | 11:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 12:24 |
| 2024-25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 5:44 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12:24 |
| Apr 1 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:38 |
| Mar 22 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:51 |
| Mar 19 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 |
| Mar 16 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10:16 |
| Mar 13 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:15 |
| Mar 10 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 |
| Mar 9 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 |
| Mar 7 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:56 |
| Mar 5 | vs NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.3 | 3 | minus 6.3 goals above expected | 46 | 108 |
| 2024-25 | 9.7 | 9 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 53 | 120 |
| 2023-24 | 2.1 | 1 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 15 | 27 |
| 2022-23 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 3 | 4 |
| 2021-22 | 0.9 | 0 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 6 | 16 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 16 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
108 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.