Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 332 game sample- PTS
- 47.5
- SOG
- 154.5
- G
- 18.7
- A
- 28.8
- PPP
- 6.3
- HIT
- 46.6
- BLK
- 43.0
- PIM
- 35.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 332 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 332 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 332 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.89
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 0.56
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 14 | 32 | 46 | 0.59 | 142 | 16:55 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 26 | 31 | 57 | 0.70 | 177 | 16:49 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 18 | 15 | 33 | 0.41 | 135 | 15:59 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 8:52 |
| 2021-22 | 68 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 0.26 | 105 | 10:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.60 | 18 | 16:58 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 13 | 16:02 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6:24 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:26 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 17:12 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16:03 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:03 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.9 | 14 | minus 6.9 goals above expected | 71 | 201 |
| 2024-25 | 25.1 | 26 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 74 | 257 |
| 2023-24 | 19.7 | 18 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 77 | 198 |
| 2022-23 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 2 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | 12.4 | 9 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 54 | 137 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 28 assists, 40 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 22 goals, 24 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
201 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.