Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 237 game sample- PTS
- 32.0
- SOG
- 133.5
- G
- 17.3
- A
- 14.7
- PPP
- 3.6
- HIT
- 80.2
- BLK
- 38.6
- PIM
- 14.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 237 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 237 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 237 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.63
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 0.98
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 16 | 16 | 32 | 0.41 | 127 | 12:40 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 0.32 | 112 | 12:00 |
| 2023-24 | 56 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 0.48 | 96 | 11:23 |
| 2022-23 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.33 | 27 | 10:53 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 14 | 10:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 9:59 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 9:48 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:19 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.6 | 16 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 70 | 185 |
| 2024-25 | 10.6 | 15 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 65 | 174 |
| 2023-24 | 9.4 | 14 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 52 | 133 |
| 2022-23 | 2.8 | 2 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 15 | 36 |
| 2021-22 | 0.8 | 1 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 8 | 17 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 14 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 7 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 11 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
185 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.