Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 280 game sample- PTS
- 46.6
- SOG
- 169.2
- G
- 23.5
- A
- 23.1
- PPP
- 5.3
- HIT
- 98.6
- BLK
- 63.5
- PIM
- 38.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 280 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 280 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 280 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 2.07
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 1.20
- BLK
- 0.77
- PIM
- 0.47
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 23 | 23 | 46 | 0.64 | 157 | 18:43 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 21 | 16 | 37 | 0.53 | 127 | 17:34 |
| 2023-24 | 41 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 0.66 | 110 | 18:07 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 20 | 15 | 35 | 0.43 | 158 | 15:59 |
| 2021-22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 5 | 12:57 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 21:38 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 7 | 19:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:16 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:08 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28:17 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:51 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:00 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:20 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.9 | 23 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 68 | 249 |
| 2024-25 | 23.8 | 21 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 61 | 201 |
| 2023-24 | 16.2 | 9 | minus 7.2 goals above expected | 40 | 165 |
| 2022-23 | 22.5 | 20 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 79 | 221 |
| 2021-22 | 1.3 | 0 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 4 | 11 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 21 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 0 assists, 5 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
249 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.