Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 257 game sample- PTS
- 32.2
- SOG
- 99.2
- G
- 7.0
- A
- 25.2
- PPP
- 3.9
- HIT
- 40.6
- BLK
- 103.1
- PIM
- 16.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 257 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 257 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 257 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.21
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.49
- BLK
- 1.26
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 6 | 28 | 34 | 0.42 | 98 | 23:22 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 0.43 | 97 | 20:30 |
| 2023-24 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 6 | 11:37 |
| 2022-23 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.17 | 32 | 12:36 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 29 | 13:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 8 | 22:07 |
| 2023-24 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 6 | 15:47 |
| 2022-23 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 6:53 |
| 2021-22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22:11 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:52 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:52 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25:12 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:19 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:16 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.1 | 6 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 67 | 159 |
| 2024-25 | 5.4 | 8 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 61 | 154 |
| 2023-24 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 8 | 8 |
| 2022-23 | 1.4 | 1 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 28 | 43 |
| 2021-22 | 1.4 | 1 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 18 | 41 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 25 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 19 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
159 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.