Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 282 game sample- PTS
- 40.8
- SOG
- 98.9
- G
- 19.3
- A
- 21.6
- PPP
- 4.1
- HIT
- 20.9
- BLK
- 50.3
- PIM
- 13.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 282 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 282 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 282 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.20
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.25
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 0.52 | 100 | 16:44 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 0.60 | 96 | 16:52 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 0.33 | 72 | 13:19 |
| 2022-23 | 50 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.18 | 39 | 11:06 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 11:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:37 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:08 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:03 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:31 |
| Mar 24 | vs CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.6 | 19 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 71 | 169 |
| 2024-25 | 15.8 | 20 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 68 | 165 |
| 2023-24 | 8.7 | 15 | plus 6.3 goals above expected | 53 | 115 |
| 2022-23 | 5.3 | 6 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 38 | 59 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 17 assists, 33 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 18 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 3 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
169 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.