Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 295 game sample- PTS
- 43.9
- SOG
- 114.5
- G
- 15.1
- A
- 28.7
- PPP
- 9.1
- HIT
- 24.2
- BLK
- 19.5
- PIM
- 15.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 295 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 295 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 295 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.54
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.40
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.29
- BLK
- 0.23
- PIM
- 0.19
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 0.55 | 90 | 14:34 |
| 2024-25 | 55 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 0.33 | 86 | 13:44 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 17 | 40 | 57 | 0.70 | 149 | 16:14 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 0.77 | 61 | 15:41 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.26 | 21 | 14:12 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:09 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.8 | 14 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 58 | 140 |
| 2024-25 | 9.4 | 8 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 47 | 142 |
| 2023-24 | 17.0 | 17 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 74 | 205 |
| 2022-23 | 8.3 | 11 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 49 | 85 |
| 2021-22 | 2.2 | 1 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 14 | 28 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 7 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 26 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
140 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.