Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 66 game sample- PTS
- 38.5
- SOG
- 184.3
- G
- 16.1
- A
- 22.4
- PPP
- 6.2
- HIT
- 72.5
- BLK
- 23.0
- PIM
- 32.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 66 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 66 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 66 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.27
- SOG
- 2.26
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 0.88
- BLK
- 0.27
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 0.47 | 149 | 15:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Mar 20 | @ WSH | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 |
| Mar 18 | @ NYR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 |
| Mar 16 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 |
| Mar 14 | vs LAK | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Mar 12 | vs CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 |
| Mar 8 | vs DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 |
| Mar 7 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:21 |
| Mar 4 | vs TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Mar 3 | vs FLA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.5 | 13 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 64 | 214 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
214 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.