Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 134 game sample- PTS
- 22.9
- SOG
- 108.9
- G
- 7.0
- A
- 15.9
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 136.2
- BLK
- 107.8
- PIM
- 56.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 134 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 134 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 134 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.28
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.19
- SOG
- 1.32
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.67
- BLK
- 1.32
- PIM
- 0.69
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 0.32 | 114 | 17:08 |
| 2024-25 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.13 | 28 | 17:17 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 18 | 15:41 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:09 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:41 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:32 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:25 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20:09 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 21:03 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:37 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.9 | 7 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 75 | 174 |
| 2024-25 | 1.3 | 3 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 25 | 46 |
| 2023-24 | 0.3 | 0 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 13 | 22 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
174 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.