Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 412 game sample- PTS
- 18.9
- SOG
- 96.6
- G
- 3.7
- A
- 15.2
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 157.8
- BLK
- 139.7
- PIM
- 24.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 412 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 412 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 412 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.23
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.18
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.93
- BLK
- 1.71
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 0.22 | 102 | 20:26 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 0.26 | 95 | 17:52 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 0.23 | 95 | 15:54 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 0.22 | 79 | 15:32 |
| 2021-22 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0.26 | 25 | 15:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 15 | 17:32 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 6 | 14:58 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 11 | 11:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:41 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:28 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19:58 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22:35 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:18 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18:35 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18:49 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.6 | 2 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 73 | 158 |
| 2024-25 | 4.2 | 6 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 65 | 140 |
| 2023-24 | 4.4 | 5 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 66 | 130 |
| 2022-23 | 3.6 | 5 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 57 | 103 |
| 2021-22 | 1.5 | 2 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 24 | 42 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 16 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
158 attempts · 2 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.