Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 251 game sample- PTS
- 59.8
- SOG
- 189.8
- G
- 26.0
- A
- 33.8
- PPP
- 10.1
- HIT
- 181.7
- BLK
- 52.7
- PIM
- 25.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 251 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 251 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 251 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.73
- G
- 0.32
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 2.32
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 2.22
- BLK
- 0.64
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 59 | 22 | 29 | 51 | 0.86 | 162 | 18:15 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 26 | 37 | 63 | 0.82 | 178 | 16:49 |
| 2023-24 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.24 | 56 | 11:22 |
| 2022-23 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.18 | 44 | 9:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.28 | 29 | 11:31 |
| 2021-22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3:27 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:06 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:02 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24:07 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:32 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21:07 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:13 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.1 | 22 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 57 | 218 |
| 2024-25 | 19.2 | 26 | plus 6.8 goals above expected | 75 | 240 |
| 2023-24 | 6.3 | 6 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 33 | 78 |
| 2022-23 | 6.5 | 3 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 37 | 67 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 30 assists, 50 points | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
218 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.