Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 241 game sample- PTS
- 53.6
- SOG
- 127.7
- G
- 21.1
- A
- 32.4
- PPP
- 16.7
- HIT
- 64.1
- BLK
- 44.0
- PIM
- 27.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 241 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 241 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 241 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 1.56
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.78
- BLK
- 0.53
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 0.70 | 66 | 17:28 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 24 | 36 | 60 | 0.73 | 136 | 18:15 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 21 | 19 | 40 | 0.49 | 167 | 16:44 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 13 | 12:31 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 15:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 9 | 11:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:15 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:52 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.1 | 12 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 48 | 103 |
| 2024-25 | 20.9 | 24 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 73 | 209 |
| 2023-24 | 19.5 | 21 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 77 | 238 |
| 2022-23 | 1.6 | 0 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 13 | 21 |
| 2021-22 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 2 | 7 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 15 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
103 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.