Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 287 game sample- PTS
- 43.0
- SOG
- 115.0
- G
- 20.1
- A
- 22.9
- PPP
- 10.2
- HIT
- 175.7
- BLK
- 46.8
- PIM
- 51.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 287 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 287 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 287 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.40
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 2.15
- BLK
- 0.57
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 0.52 | 86 | 15:14 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 0.56 | 122 | 15:54 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 27 | 11 | 38 | 0.49 | 145 | 15:43 |
| 2022-23 | 43 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.23 | 53 | 12:26 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 8 | 9:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 8 | 17:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14:47 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13:26 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:59 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.2 | 15 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 60 | 128 |
| 2024-25 | 17.4 | 22 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 71 | 164 |
| 2023-24 | 21.4 | 27 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 68 | 193 |
| 2022-23 | 5.6 | 6 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 37 | 72 |
| 2021-22 | 0.9 | 1 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 7 | 10 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 18 assists, 34 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 5 assists, 24 points | 8 goals, 6 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
128 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.