Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 273 game sample- PTS
- 48.0
- SOG
- 169.9
- G
- 18.5
- A
- 29.5
- PPP
- 12.2
- HIT
- 55.4
- BLK
- 24.6
- PIM
- 17.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 273 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 273 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 273 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.59
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.08
- PPP
- 0.15
- HIT
- 0.67
- BLK
- 0.30
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 0.62 | 191 | 15:40 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.53 | 123 | 14:52 |
| 2023-24 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 0.70 | 56 | 15:38 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 14 | 23 | 37 | 0.49 | 126 | 13:51 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 6 | 14:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.54 | 25 | 16:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:18 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:30 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.0 | 20 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 80 | 295 |
| 2024-25 | 14.5 | 15 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 64 | 205 |
| 2023-24 | 7.4 | 9 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 25 | 85 |
| 2022-23 | 16.6 | 14 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 64 | 186 |
| 2021-22 | 0.4 | 1 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 2 | 6 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 14 assists, 26 points | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
295 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.