Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 312 game sample- PTS
- 57.2
- SOG
- 178.2
- G
- 13.3
- A
- 43.9
- PPP
- 25.0
- HIT
- 42.8
- BLK
- 159.8
- PIM
- 14.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 312 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 312 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 312 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.70
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 2.18
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 0.52
- BLK
- 1.96
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 14 | 40 | 54 | 0.81 | 147 | 24:50 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 11 | 46 | 57 | 0.71 | 195 | 24:26 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 10 | 28 | 38 | 0.48 | 158 | 23:13 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 4 | 28 | 32 | 0.42 | 132 | 21:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 5 | 27:57 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 9 | 26:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 43:06 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27:25 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27:38 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:22 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:08 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26:47 |
| Apr 4 | vs MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:55 |
| Mar 7 | @ SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:52 |
| Mar 5 | @ CGY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.5 | 14 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 65 | 240 |
| 2024-25 | 9.4 | 11 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 77 | 275 |
| 2023-24 | 9.3 | 10 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 73 | 236 |
| 2022-23 | 7.4 | 4 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 67 | 192 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 23 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 25 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
240 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.