Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 449 game sample- PTS
- 52.0
- SOG
- 165.2
- G
- 22.3
- A
- 29.7
- PPP
- 9.8
- HIT
- 100.3
- BLK
- 34.3
- PIM
- 28.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 449 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 449 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 449 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.64
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.02
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.22
- BLK
- 0.42
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 0.70 | 164 | 17:36 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 0.55 | 153 | 17:01 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 0.70 | 217 | 17:16 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 0.48 | 135 | 15:13 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 19 | 12 | 31 | 0.39 | 110 | 13:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0.88 | 43 | 16:41 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 14:20 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0.45 | 30 | 14:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:17 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.8 | 24 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 81 | 262 |
| 2024-25 | 18.0 | 17 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 80 | 239 |
| 2023-24 | 27.3 | 28 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 81 | 317 |
| 2022-23 | 15.6 | 16 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 74 | 183 |
| 2021-22 | 11.7 | 19 | plus 7.3 goals above expected | 63 | 153 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 27 assists, 42 points | 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 22 assists, 35 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 19 goals, 10 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
262 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.