Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 427 game sample- PTS
- 40.1
- SOG
- 149.8
- G
- 20.3
- A
- 19.9
- PPP
- 6.8
- HIT
- 38.3
- BLK
- 50.0
- PIM
- 28.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 427 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 427 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 427 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 1.83
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 0.46
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 22 | 42 | 0.51 | 158 | 18:14 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 19 | 17 | 36 | 0.44 | 141 | 17:53 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 13 | 33 | 0.40 | 134 | 17:13 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 27 | 29 | 56 | 0.68 | 161 | 16:34 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 17 | 25 | 42 | 0.51 | 154 | 16:32 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 8 | 21:05 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.58 | 16 | 16:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:34 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:47 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:00 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:51 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.4 | 20 | minus 6.4 goals above expected | 79 | 247 |
| 2024-25 | 21.1 | 19 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 78 | 207 |
| 2023-24 | 19.3 | 20 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 76 | 182 |
| 2022-23 | 25.8 | 27 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 74 | 216 |
| 2021-22 | 19.2 | 17 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 71 | 193 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 12 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 20 assists, 44 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 21 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
247 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.