Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 437 game sample- PTS
- 50.4
- SOG
- 168.1
- G
- 19.0
- A
- 31.4
- PPP
- 11.0
- HIT
- 93.4
- BLK
- 50.2
- PIM
- 42.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 437 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 437 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 437 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.62
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 2.05
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 1.14
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.51
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 0.69 | 138 | 19:09 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 0.57 | 158 | 16:43 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 13 | 22 | 35 | 0.45 | 166 | 15:23 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 0.45 | 152 | 16:22 |
| 2021-22 | 66 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 0.67 | 125 | 15:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.78 | 48 | 16:10 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 0.71 | 29 | 16:13 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0.48 | 43 | 18:04 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 4 | 11:30 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | @ EDM | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 |
| Mar 17 | @ VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 |
| Mar 15 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:04 |
| Mar 10 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 |
| Mar 6 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:30 |
| Mar 5 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 |
| Mar 3 | @ NJD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 |
| Mar 1 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 |
| Feb 27 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Feb 26 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:18 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.0 | 18 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 61 | 219 |
| 2024-25 | 17.6 | 17 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 73 | 238 |
| 2023-24 | 16.0 | 13 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 72 | 221 |
| 2022-23 | 16.5 | 12 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 67 | 196 |
| 2021-22 | 16.8 | 18 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 57 | 171 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
219 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.