Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 356 game sample- PTS
- 51.2
- SOG
- 176.2
- G
- 22.2
- A
- 29.0
- PPP
- 10.0
- HIT
- 78.1
- BLK
- 38.7
- PIM
- 48.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 356 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 356 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 356 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.63
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 2.15
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.95
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 24 | 25 | 49 | 0.62 | 180 | 20:01 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 23 | 31 | 54 | 0.67 | 157 | 18:37 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 20 | 35 | 55 | 0.69 | 161 | 16:29 |
| 2022-23 | 53 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 0.42 | 74 | 14:04 |
| 2021-22 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.25 | 39 | 12:10 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 17 | 21:40 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | 18 | 22:27 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.80 | 8 | 16:12 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 8 | 15:09 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 7:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20:46 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20:57 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:51 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21:07 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:51 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:19 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:01 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.7 | 24 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 78 | 283 |
| 2024-25 | 22.8 | 23 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 76 | 266 |
| 2023-24 | 22.3 | 20 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 73 | 247 |
| 2022-23 | 11.8 | 3 | minus 8.8 goals above expected | 46 | 119 |
| 2021-22 | 5.7 | 5 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 31 | 63 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 17 assists, 37 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 27 assists, 46 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 19 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
283 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.