Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 255 game sample- PTS
- 42.2
- SOG
- 200.3
- G
- 18.5
- A
- 23.7
- PPP
- 4.8
- HIT
- 207.7
- BLK
- 45.7
- PIM
- 22.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 255 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 255 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 255 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.52
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 2.45
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 2.54
- BLK
- 0.56
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 21 | 23 | 44 | 0.54 | 209 | 18:19 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 0.55 | 193 | 16:32 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 0.28 | 147 | 13:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.00 | 15 | 22:27 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.50 | 10 | 18:15 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 10 | 13:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:20 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23:21 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20:30 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:02 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:40 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.4 | 21 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 80 | 341 |
| 2024-25 | 22.7 | 19 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 75 | 300 |
| 2023-24 | 15.3 | 12 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 77 | 237 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 21 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 21 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
341 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.