Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 148 game sample- PTS
- 34.5
- SOG
- 86.3
- G
- 11.9
- A
- 22.7
- PPP
- 2.9
- HIT
- 99.6
- BLK
- 31.3
- PIM
- 36.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 148 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 148 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 148 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.05
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.21
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.45 | 77 | 13:05 |
| 2024-25 | 60 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 0.33 | 61 | 12:47 |
| 2023-24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 9:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 10 | 14:28 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.80 | 4 | 16:54 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:33 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:58 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
| Apr 15 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:04 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.7 | 11 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 58 | 113 |
| 2024-25 | 6.8 | 8 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 42 | 89 |
| 2023-24 | 0.1 | 0 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 1 | 1 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
113 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.