Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 231 game sample- PTS
- 42.3
- SOG
- 184.4
- G
- 25.6
- A
- 16.8
- PPP
- 5.6
- HIT
- 172.7
- BLK
- 27.3
- PIM
- 46.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 231 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 231 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 231 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.52
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 2.25
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 2.11
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 29 | 17 | 46 | 0.59 | 183 | 15:56 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 0.46 | 169 | 14:30 |
| 2023-24 | 56 | 15 | 9 | 24 | 0.43 | 118 | 11:34 |
| 2022-23 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 18 | 10:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 18 | 12:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:41 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:54 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.6 | 29 | plus 9.4 goals above expected | 73 | 265 |
| 2024-25 | 16.9 | 20 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 66 | 235 |
| 2023-24 | 10.6 | 15 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 47 | 159 |
| 2022-23 | 1.8 | 0 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 9 | 26 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25 goals, 15 assists, 40 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 11 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 9 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
265 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.