Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 157 game sample- PTS
- 49.0
- SOG
- 167.2
- G
- 21.7
- A
- 27.3
- PPP
- 14.6
- HIT
- 84.8
- BLK
- 28.1
- PIM
- 24.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 157 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 157 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 157 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 2.04
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 1.03
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 25 | 27 | 52 | 0.63 | 170 | 15:52 |
| 2024-25 | 51 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0.37 | 88 | 13:31 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.82 | 23 | 12:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.77 | 32 | 16:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:38 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:30 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:32 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.5 | 25 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 76 | 252 |
| 2024-25 | 11.7 | 7 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 49 | 141 |
| 2023-24 | 3.3 | 5 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 10 | 31 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 19 assists, 35 points | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
252 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.