Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 345 game sample- PTS
- 47.3
- SOG
- 147.4
- G
- 19.8
- A
- 27.6
- PPP
- 10.7
- HIT
- 41.0
- BLK
- 66.8
- PIM
- 19.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 345 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 345 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 345 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 1.80
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 0.50
- BLK
- 0.81
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 0.61 | 149 | 19:17 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 0.52 | 147 | 18:41 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 0.48 | 133 | 17:58 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 0.71 | 148 | 17:05 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.90 | 18 | 16:56 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.50 | 22 | 17:48 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:34 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:27 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:17 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.4 | 20 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 76 | 252 |
| 2024-25 | 19.3 | 20 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 79 | 243 |
| 2023-24 | 15.1 | 15 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 73 | 191 |
| 2022-23 | 19.8 | 24 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 76 | 218 |
| 2021-22 | 2.0 | 3 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 10 | 26 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 26 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
252 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.