Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 252 game sample- PTS
- 55.6
- SOG
- 169.7
- G
- 16.5
- A
- 39.2
- PPP
- 16.8
- HIT
- 65.5
- BLK
- 55.3
- PIM
- 32.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 252 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 252 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 252 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.68
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 2.07
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.80
- BLK
- 0.67
- PIM
- 0.40
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 15 | 38 | 53 | 0.68 | 176 | 18:32 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 17 | 41 | 58 | 0.75 | 151 | 19:33 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.56 | 128 | 18:40 |
| 2022-23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 18 | 19:50 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.44 | 8 | 14:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:24 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:49 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:01 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.7 | 15 | minus 8.7 goals above expected | 75 | 247 |
| 2024-25 | 22.5 | 17 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 73 | 245 |
| 2023-24 | 18.9 | 16 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 74 | 205 |
| 2022-23 | 2.0 | 1 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 7 | 22 |
| 2021-22 | 1.4 | 0 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 6 | 11 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 25 assists, 37 points | 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 29 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
247 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.