Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 367 game sample- PTS
- 34.1
- SOG
- 146.1
- G
- 10.2
- A
- 23.9
- PPP
- 1.9
- HIT
- 111.0
- BLK
- 49.3
- PIM
- 39.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 367 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 367 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 367 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.78
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.35
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 0.41 | 136 | 15:13 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.50 | 129 | 16:55 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 0.42 | 157 | 16:07 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.17 | 93 | 13:19 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 0.39 | 148 | 13:42 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:35 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:29 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.6 | 8 | minus 8.6 goals above expected | 69 | 195 |
| 2024-25 | 12.6 | 11 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 62 | 181 |
| 2023-24 | 16.8 | 13 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 73 | 222 |
| 2022-23 | 10.8 | 3 | minus 7.8 goals above expected | 53 | 137 |
| 2021-22 | 19.1 | 16 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 72 | 201 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 24 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 13 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
195 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.