Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 267 game sample- PTS
- 60.2
- SOG
- 146.7
- G
- 24.6
- A
- 35.6
- PPP
- 13.3
- HIT
- 171.1
- BLK
- 37.2
- PIM
- 36.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 267 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 267 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 267 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.74
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 1.79
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 2.09
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.45
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 23 | 43 | 66 | 0.84 | 140 | 18:47 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 29 | 29 | 58 | 0.74 | 152 | 18:31 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 0.44 | 115 | 13:41 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 4 | 13:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.54 | 29 | 19:48 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.43 | 14 | 15:05 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 7 | 13:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.7 | 23 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 69 | 194 |
| 2024-25 | 25.3 | 29 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 73 | 220 |
| 2023-24 | 14.9 | 15 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 68 | 161 |
| 2022-23 | 0.5 | 0 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 2 | 5 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 33 assists, 50 points | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 24 goals, 18 assists, 42 points | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
194 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.