Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 75 game sample- PTS
- 17.9
- SOG
- 100.7
- G
- 7.0
- A
- 10.9
- PPP
- 1.3
- HIT
- 113.1
- BLK
- 69.8
- PIM
- 58.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 75 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 75 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 75 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.22
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.22
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 1.38
- BLK
- 0.85
- PIM
- 0.72
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0.19 | 81 | 16:46 |
| 2024-25 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.57 | 10 | 16:13 |
| 2023-24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 21:14 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:34 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:27 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:04 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:01 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 19:50 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.0 | 5 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 55 | 119 |
| 2024-25 | 0.9 | 2 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 6 | 14 |
| 2023-24 | 0.1 | 0 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 1 | 4 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
119 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.